June 11, 2024

Bitcoin Rockets Past $65,000. Where Does It Go From Here?

Americans woke up this morning to find that bitcoin passed the psychologically important $65,000 mark. What might it do in the coming days and weeks?

Dave Birnbaum
Dave Birnbaum

Director of Product

Bitcoin Rockets Past $65,000. Where Does It Go From Here?

Table of contents

Bitcoin Rockets Past $65,000. Where Does It Go From Here?

This article was originally published on forbes.com

Americans woke up this morning to find that bitcoin passed the psychologically important $65,000 mark.

Even though the bitcoin ETFs are only traded during business hours, physical bitcoin is traded 24/7/365. Because demand can change fast, its exchange rate can move thousands of dollars in minutes. That means that you could wake up one morning and find that it has crashed – or rallied – almost incomprehensible amounts.

Bitcoin’svolatility is a result of some of its unique properties. First, supply is divorced from demand. The same number of bitcoins are mined every day. Right now, there are 900 new bitcoin per day that enter circulation, but in a few weeks, the halving will drop this number to 450 new bitcoins per day.

More profoundly, bitcoin is monetizing, meaning it is becoming money. It is a new monetary instrument for storing value that is spreading through the world economy like wildfire.

As newcomers enter the market, they might lean into a greed impulse and overstretch their finances to take a large bitcoin position, which causes the price to suddenly rise. Then the price may drop when some of these folks need to sell in order to meet other liabilities. Then, as the price moves down, some other newcomers may not understand how the asset works, and get spooked into selling.

Rinse and repeat.

However, the long-term trend line is clear: As bitcoin monetizes, its exchange rate rises in dollar terms. Because the supply of bitcoin is perfectly predictable, you can think about it as a fixed pie. All people who own bitcoin own a piece of a pie whose overall size cannot change. As capital flows in to bitcoin, the pie represents the total value of all of that capital.

Where does it go from here? With Wells Fargo and Merril Lynch now offering spot bitcoin ETFs to their clients, it does seem like the exchange rate will continue to rise as more and more capital flows in to the network. Will we see a new all-time-high for bitcoin soon? Bitcoin only needs to move a few more thousand dollars for that to happen. Consider the rally these past few weeks and draw your own conclusion.

Does the price of bitcoin matter? Absolutely. The higher it goes, the more likely that its integration with traditional finance will continue. As that happens, information asymmetry decreases in the market. This may cause the volatility to dampen over time, which would be a good thing for bitcoin to be used as a store of value in shorter timeframes.

It a certainty that nobody can predict the price of bitcoin in the short term. It is also definitely the case that none of the information in this article constitutes financial advice.

If inflows to bitcoin ETFs continue at the rate they have over the past few weeks, or even accelerate, bitcoin’s price may have more surprises in store.

March 4, 2024

Bitcoin Rockets Past $65,000. Where Does It Go From Here?

Americans woke up this morning to find that bitcoin passed the psychologically important $65,000 mark. What might it do in the coming days and weeks?

Dave Birnbaum
Dave Birnbaum

Director of Product

Bitcoin Rockets Past $65,000. Where Does It Go From Here?

This article was originally published on forbes.com

Americans woke up this morning to find that bitcoin passed the psychologically important $65,000 mark.

Even though the bitcoin ETFs are only traded during business hours, physical bitcoin is traded 24/7/365. Because demand can change fast, its exchange rate can move thousands of dollars in minutes. That means that you could wake up one morning and find that it has crashed – or rallied – almost incomprehensible amounts.

Bitcoin’svolatility is a result of some of its unique properties. First, supply is divorced from demand. The same number of bitcoins are mined every day. Right now, there are 900 new bitcoin per day that enter circulation, but in a few weeks, the halving will drop this number to 450 new bitcoins per day.

More profoundly, bitcoin is monetizing, meaning it is becoming money. It is a new monetary instrument for storing value that is spreading through the world economy like wildfire.

As newcomers enter the market, they might lean into a greed impulse and overstretch their finances to take a large bitcoin position, which causes the price to suddenly rise. Then the price may drop when some of these folks need to sell in order to meet other liabilities. Then, as the price moves down, some other newcomers may not understand how the asset works, and get spooked into selling.

Rinse and repeat.

However, the long-term trend line is clear: As bitcoin monetizes, its exchange rate rises in dollar terms. Because the supply of bitcoin is perfectly predictable, you can think about it as a fixed pie. All people who own bitcoin own a piece of a pie whose overall size cannot change. As capital flows in to bitcoin, the pie represents the total value of all of that capital.

Where does it go from here? With Wells Fargo and Merril Lynch now offering spot bitcoin ETFs to their clients, it does seem like the exchange rate will continue to rise as more and more capital flows in to the network. Will we see a new all-time-high for bitcoin soon? Bitcoin only needs to move a few more thousand dollars for that to happen. Consider the rally these past few weeks and draw your own conclusion.

Does the price of bitcoin matter? Absolutely. The higher it goes, the more likely that its integration with traditional finance will continue. As that happens, information asymmetry decreases in the market. This may cause the volatility to dampen over time, which would be a good thing for bitcoin to be used as a store of value in shorter timeframes.

It a certainty that nobody can predict the price of bitcoin in the short term. It is also definitely the case that none of the information in this article constitutes financial advice.

If inflows to bitcoin ETFs continue at the rate they have over the past few weeks, or even accelerate, bitcoin’s price may have more surprises in store.

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